Carrie W.

MiTi 2026 Deep Dive · Grove City, Ohio

3588 activities2017-08-06 → 2026-04-163630 total hours

🏥 Recovery Prescription

Good shape — fitness is accessible

✓ Training load is well balanced — keep doing what you're doing

✓ Room to add intensity or volume if targeting a race build

MiTi 2026: 17 weeks out. BUILD PHASE: 17 weeks to MiTi — plenty of time to build and recover

📊 Your Fitness Story — In Plain English

An AI-generated narrative interpreting your fitness, fatigue, and form chart. Based on 3588 activities over 9 years.

Where You Are Right Now

Your training is well balanced right now. Fitness (CTL=56) and recent load (ATL=54) are close to equilibrium (TSB=2). You're maintaining without digging a fatigue hole — a sustainable place to train from.

Injury Risk Right Now

Your A:C ratio is 1.06 — right in the productive training zone (0.8-1.3). Your recent training load is well matched to what your body has adapted to. You can push a little harder or maintain, and you're not at elevated injury risk.

Current Training Cycle

Your current training build started around 2026-01-30 when your CTL was 48. Over the past 76 days, you've gained 8 CTL points, bringing you to 56. At 0.7 CTL/week, this is a conservative build — plenty of room to push harder if you want to. For context, you're currently at 82% of your all-time peak CTL (68, reached on 2025-11-06).

⚠ Data Quality Note

58.6% of activities (2104 of 3588) had no heart rate data. For these, training load was estimated from your own averages by sport type (Run: —/hr, Bike: —/hr, Swim: —/hr). Wearing a HR monitor consistently would significantly improve accuracy.

📖 How to Read This Dashboard

All the jargon in this report, explained in plain English with color-coded ranges.

CTL — Chronic Training Load ("Fitness")

Think of CTL as your fitness bank account. It's a rolling 42-day average of how hard you've been training. Higher = fitter.

Below 40 = low base ✘40–70 = moderate ⚠70–90 = strong ✔90+ = elite ★

ATL — Acute Training Load ("Fatigue")

ATL reflects how hard the last 7 days have been. When ATL is much higher than CTL, your body is absorbing more stress than it's adapted to.

Below CTL = recovering ✔Near CTL = balanced ✔Well above CTL = overreaching ✘

TSB — Training Stress Balance ("Form")

TSB = CTL minus ATL. Negative means recent training is heavier than adapted to. Sweet spot for race day is +5 to +15.

Below -25 = danger ✘-25 to -10 = building ⚠-10 to +5 = balanced ✔+5 to +15 = race-ready ★

A:C Ratio — Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio ("Injury Risk")

Compares recent 7 days to 28-day average. Above 1.3 = elevated injury risk. Above 1.5 = serious risk.

Below 0.8 = undertrained ↓0.8–1.3 = sweet spot ✔1.3–1.5 = caution ⚠Above 1.5 = high risk ✘

Lifetime Training Eras

Annual average fitness (CTL), peak fitness, run volume, and average pace across your entire Strava history.

Year	Hours	Avg CTL	Peak CTL	Run Mi	Bike Mi	Avg Pace
2017	56	10.9	16.8	211	246	9.8 min/mi
2018	228	23.6	38.3	609	1319	9.8 min/mi
2019	292	30.9	38.1	779	1453	9.8 min/mi
2020	415	42.2	55.2	738	2470	9.6 min/mi
2021	501	49.6	58.3	846	2541	9.7 min/mi
2022	475	47.3	55.4	682	2987	9.6 min/mi
2023	484	49	66.3	737	3748	9.8 min/mi
2024	491	50.6	62.7	663	4501	9.7 min/mi
2025	552	54.4	68.4	684	4324	9.8 min/mi
2026 YTD→FY	156 → 539	52.2	58.1	232 → 800	1004 → 3457	9.9 min/mi

YTD→FY: actual year-to-date projected to full-year pace

Current Fitness State as of 2026-04-16

CTL = 42-day fitness. ATL = 7-day fatigue. TSB = CTL - ATL. Based on estimated training load.

CTL (Fitness)

ATL (Fatigue)

TSB (Form)

Peak CTL (all-time)

A:C Ratio

Fitness / Fatigue / Form

The money chart. Rising CTL = building fitness. Target TSB +5 to +15 on race day.

Training Volume Trend

Monthly hours by discipline. Tap legend to isolate.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Monthly totals stacked across years.

Pace Progression

Average training pace per month — are you getting faster?

MiTi 2026 Race Prediction Monte Carlo, 2000 runs

Based on your training pace distributions with race-day derating.