Becca R.

MiTi 2026 Deep Dive ยท Columbus, Ohio

5864 activities2017-10-23 โ†’ 2026-04-164418 total hours

๐Ÿฅ Recovery Prescription

Good shape โ€” fitness is accessible

โœ“ Training load is well balanced โ€” keep doing what you're doing
โœ“ Room to add intensity or volume if targeting a race build
MiTi 2026: 17 weeks out. BUILD PHASE: 17 weeks to MiTi โ€” plenty of time to build and recover

๐Ÿ“Š Your Fitness Story โ€” In Plain English

An AI-generated narrative interpreting your fitness, fatigue, and form chart. Based on 5864 activities over 8 years.

Where You Are Right Now
Your training is well balanced right now. Fitness (CTL=50) and recent load (ATL=48) are close to equilibrium (TSB=3). You're maintaining without digging a fatigue hole โ€” a sustainable place to train from.
Injury Risk Right Now
Your A:C ratio is 1.01 โ€” right in the productive training zone (0.8-1.3). Your recent training load is well matched to what your body has adapted to. You can push a little harder or maintain, and you're not at elevated injury risk.
Your Injury History โ€” Patterns from the Data
Looking back across your training history, I found 1 periods where your fitness dropped sharply โ€” likely injuries, illness, or burnout forcing time off. Here's what they have in common: โ€ข September 2021: CTL was 61 with ATL at 66.4 (TSB=-5.4). Over the next 30 days, fitness dropped 15.2 points to 45.8. Pattern: 0 of 1 crashes happened when TSB was below -15. Average pre-crash CTL was 61 and average pre-crash TSB was -5. Your current TSB (3) is approaching the zone where crashes have historically happened for you.
Current Training Cycle
Your current training build started around 2025-12-26 when your CTL was 40. Over the past 111 days, you've gained 11 CTL points, bringing you to 50. At 0.7 CTL/week, this is a conservative build โ€” plenty of room to push harder if you want to. For context, you're currently at 75% of your all-time peak CTL (67, reached on 2024-03-25).
โš  Data Quality Note
45.4% of activities (2662 of 5864) had no heart rate data. For these, training load was estimated from your own averages by sport type (Run: โ€”/hr, Bike: โ€”/hr, Swim: โ€”/hr). Wearing a HR monitor consistently would significantly improve accuracy.

๐Ÿ“– How to Read This Dashboard

All the jargon in this report, explained in plain English with color-coded ranges.

CTL โ€” Chronic Training Load ("Fitness")
Think of CTL as your fitness bank account. It's a rolling 42-day average of how hard you've been training. Higher = fitter. It goes up slowly when you train consistently and drops slowly when you rest.
Below 40 = low base โœ˜40โ€“70 = moderate โš 70โ€“90 = strong โœ”90+ = elite โ˜…
ATL โ€” Acute Training Load ("Fatigue")
ATL reflects how hard the last 7 days have been. It moves fast. When ATL is much higher than CTL, your body is absorbing more stress than it's adapted to.
Below CTL = recovering โœ”Near CTL = balanced โœ”Well above CTL = overreaching โœ˜
TSB โ€” Training Stress Balance ("Form")
TSB = CTL minus ATL. Negative means recent training is heavier than adapted to. The sweet spot for race day is +5 to +15 โ€” fit but fresh.
Below -25 = danger โœ˜-25 to -10 = building โš -10 to +5 = balanced โœ”+5 to +15 = race-ready โ˜…
A:C Ratio โ€” Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio ("Injury Risk")
Compares recent 7 days to 28-day average. Above 1.3 = elevated injury risk. Above 1.5 = serious risk. Below 0.8 = detraining.
Below 0.8 = undertrained โ†“0.8โ€“1.3 = sweet spot โœ”1.3โ€“1.5 = caution โš Above 1.5 = high risk โœ˜

Lifetime Training Eras

Annual average fitness (CTL), peak fitness, run volume, and average pace across your entire Strava history.

YearHoursAvg CTLPeak CTLRun MiBike MiAvg Pace
20174211.618.9216010.2 min/mi
20182842735.311638710.3 min/mi
201942934.650.9738100510.4 min/mi
202056153.962.71900839.9 min/mi
202159355.964.820045610.2 min/mi
202252450.256.91901010.3 min/mi
202360555.362.61902610.3 min/mi
202463459.967.120001710.3 min/mi
202558457.465.415664210.3 min/mi
2026 YTDโ†’FY163 โ†’ 56146.851.3325 โ†’ 11200 โ†’ 010.3 min/mi

YTDโ†’FY: actual year-to-date numbers projected to full-year pace based on days elapsed

Current Fitness State as of 2026-04-16

CTL = 42-day fitness. ATL = 7-day fatigue. TSB = CTL - ATL. Based on estimated training load.

CTL (Fitness)
50.3
ATL (Fatigue)
47.8
TSB (Form)
+2.5
Peak CTL (all-time)
67.1
A:C Ratio
1.01
Healthy load progression. A:C ratio in the 0.8โ€“1.3 sweet spot.

Fitness / Fatigue / Form

The money chart. Rising CTL = building fitness. Negative TSB for weeks = overreaching risk. Target TSB +5 to +15 on race day.

Training Volume Trend

Monthly hours by discipline. Tap legend to isolate.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Monthly totals stacked across years. Useful for spotting seasonality.

Pace Progression

Average training pace per month โ€” are you getting faster?

MiTi 2026 Race Prediction Monte Carlo, 2000 runs

Based on your training pace distributions with race-day derating (bike 8-12% off training pace, run 10-20% slower due to bike leg).

Half Ironman (70.3)

7:23
Range: 7:20 โ€“ 7:25 (50% confidence)
Swim
0:48
Bike
4:21
Run
2:28

Full Ironman (140.6)

15:10
Range: 15:05 โ€“ 15:16 (50% confidence)
Swim
1:37
Bike
9:05
Run
5:22

Training Volume Totals

Run
13716 mi
2346h ยท 2407 sessions
Bike
1296 mi
98h ยท 98 sessions
Swim
92 mi
69h ยท 119 sessions
Strength
538 hr
918 sessions
Run Elev
229.4k ft
Bike Elev
7.9k ft

Training Consistency

Active Days
95.1%
2946 of 3098
Weeks โ‰ฅ5h
401
of 443 weeks
Bricks
12
days with bike+run

Day-of-Week Pattern

Longest Efforts

DateDistancePaceTimeAvg HR
2020-11-0732.02 mi11.0 min/mi5.9h116 bpm
2022-10-3026.55 mi10.3 min/mi4.5h138 bpm
2025-10-1926.41 mi10.7 min/mi4.7h150 bpm
2023-10-2826.38 mi9.8 min/mi4.3h143 bpm
2021-03-1326.28 mi10.5 min/mi4.6h151 bpm
2021-05-2926.23 mi10.2 min/mi4.5h150 bpm
2020-10-1726.21 mi10.8 min/mi4.7h155 bpm
2021-11-0623.57 mi10.8 min/mi4.3h136 bpm
2020-05-1620.11 mi11.5 min/mi3.9h127 bpm
2020-10-1020.07 mi10.5 min/mi3.5h149 bpm
2021-03-0620.07 mi10.1 min/mi3.4h-
2022-10-0820.01 mi10.3 min/mi3.4h134 bpm
2025-09-2820.01 mi10.8 min/mi3.6h152 bpm
2023-09-1620.01 mi10.4 min/mi3.5h132 bpm
2023-09-3020.01 mi10.8 min/mi3.6h133 bpm

Recent 90-Day Pace Signature

Your pace distribution for recent training.

Run (n=63)
10.2 min/mi
9.9 โ€“ 10.5
Bike (n=0)
- mph
- โ€“ -
Swim (n=17)
137 s/100yd
133 โ€“ 143
Generated 2026-04-17 ยท Powered by Strava API (lifetime data) ยท Built with Chart.js